Dr. Ramakant Dwivedi

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid a two-day state visit to Uzbekistan from April 25 to April 26, 2006 at the invitation of the Uzbek President, Islam Abduganievich Karimov who himself had visited India in April 2005. The visit marked a new chapter in Indo-Uzbek relations. The close friendly relations between Uzbekistan and India have their roots deep in history. The eminent Uzbek scholar Al-Beruni visited India in the 11th century and wrote the famous book, Kitab-Takkik Al-Hind - one of the most authoritative books on Indian society and culture. India's first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru had visited Uzbekistan in 1955 and Lal Bahadur Shastri (who succeeded Jawaharlal Nehru) visited in 1961 when it was part of the erstwhile Soviet Union.

Uzbekistan's independence in August 1991 has led to the expansion and strengthening of bilateral ties between New Delhi and Tashkent in the political, economic and cultural spheres. India was the first country visited officially by President Karimov in August 1991. This was a historic visit outlining the framework for mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

Since then President Karimov has visited India thrice, in January 1994, May 2000 and April 2005. In May 1993, the then Indian Prime Minister Narasimha Rao visited Tashkent. The political dialogue between India and Uzbekistan has been regular and mutually beneficial. High-level exchanges have indeed set the tempo to chart out the scope and direction of cooperation and have also laid the foundation for understanding of each other's interests and core concerns. Both countries subscribe to common principles of inter-state conduct, peaceful settlement of all differences, and rejection of extremism of all forms as well as the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

Manmohan Singh’s visit was the second visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Tashkent since Uzbekistan's independence in August 1991. During this visit, India and Uzbekistan signed seven agreements in the fields of energy, business, education, mineral prospecting and stepping up the joint fight against international terrorism, religious extremism and drug trafficking. This has undoubtedly increased Indian stakes in Central Asia. Dr. Singh's visit has been a historic one as far as cooperation in the energy sector is concerned. Energy security is paramount for a developing country like India, which has begun to grow at an accelerated pace. India's energy consumption is likely to grow at over 6 per cent per annum. Central Asian Republics (CARs) could provide a modicum of energy security to India. The main hurdle is how to bring hydrocarbons from Central Asia to India.

In this regard, the issue of the transport corridor assumes significance. It is noteworthy that Uzbekistan will be an important connecting point in the new transport corridor between India and Central Asia, which is likely to come up soon. The new upcoming route connecting India to Central Asia via Mumbai - Chah Bahar - Zaranj - Delaran - Heart - Naibabad - Khairaton - Termez and further, has great potential. It will reduce the distance by 1500 kilometres when compared to the existing operational route, i.e., Mumbai-Bander Abbas-Mashhed-Turkmenabad (earlier Chahar Su)-Bukhara and further.

Of the seven new agreements signed on April 26, three agreements specifying India's role in Uzbekistan's energy and mineral sectors are of particular importance. These provide exploration acreages to Indian companies without bidding, in return for an equal share in the revenue from any discovery. The significance of these three agreements arises from the fact that Uzbekistan is estimated to have 594 million barrels of proven oil reserves and an estimated 65-70 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.

Uzbekistan is the second largest natural gas producer in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) after Russia.

These agreements also mark a change in India's fortune in Central Asia. India's efforts to secure a niche for itself in Central Asian hydrocarbons have so far been not very unsuccessful. New Delhi had earlier tried to secure a share in the Kurmangazy field of Kazakhstan, but lost to China. These agreements mark a breakthrough and will help ONGC Videsh and the Gas Authority of India Limited to put their plans of investment in Uzbekistan and Central Asia on the fast track. As far as increasing the share of nuclear energy in the Indian energy basket is concerned, one would like to see more cooperation between New Delhi and Tashkent. Uzbekistan is reported to have vast quantities of uranium. India needs to examine the option of buying uranium from Tashkent for its nuclear energy production requirements. Conventional wisdom in India does not consider Central Asian energy resources seriously, pointing to the difficulties associated with transportation. In this regard, the realization of a transport corridor has to be pursued vigorously. Uzbekistan could be an important connecting point in this transport corridor. The new route connecting India to Central Asia via Mumbai - Chah Bahar - Zaranj - Delaran - Heart - Naibabad - Khairaton - Termez and further has high potential for success. India's Border Road Organisation has been building roads on this route, which is likely to be operational sooner than later. However, the threats from terrorists and extremists are still looming large on this route given the fact that the Taliban and their counterparts in Pakistan would not like to see regional cooperation picking up between Central and South Asia.

Given their shared concerns over threats from religious fundamentalism, terrorism, extremism and cross-border terrorism, India and Uzbekistan have underlined the need to further strengthen secular and democratic ideas in international relations. In this regard, they are coordinating their efforts through a Joint Working Group (JWG) on Combating International Terrorism. The last meeting of JWG on Combating International Terrorism took place during October 28-November 1, 2005 in New Delhi and the next meeting is likely to take place in Tashkent later this year. Both countries emphasize the need for an early conclusion of the Comprehensive Convention on Combating International Terrorism. Signing of the Extradition Treaty between New Delhi and Tashkent during President Karimov's visit to India in May 2000 was a significant development in this direction.

India and Uzbekistan have been playing a positive role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, which has been the launching ground for incursions carried out by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Movement of Turkistan (IMT). These groups have declared goals to overthrow the secular and constitutionally elected governments of the Central Asian Republics and establish an Islamic Caliphate in the region. Extremist elements from the Central Asian Republics have reportedly been found fighting along with Pakistani mujahideen in Jammu & Kashmir. There is a clear nexus among the Islamic Revival Parties, the Islamic Movement of Turkistan, Jamat-e-Islami of Pakistan, Taliban and al Qaeda. This brings in to focus the role of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Movement of Turkistan (IMT) in the current political space of the region. Both groups have been waging wars against secular governments. Their "struggle" is aimed at establishing an Islamic Caliphate in the region comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Xinjiang. There is credible information to indicate that some extremist elements from the Central Asian Republics have been found operating side-by-side with Pakistani militants in Jammu & Kashmir. There is a nexus between IMU-IMT and the Jamaat-e-Islami of Pakistan, Taliban and Al Qaeda. It is not in India's security interests to be a mute witness to the revival and growth of religious extremism in Central Asia. New Delhi and Tashkent share common concerns over threats from religious extremism and cross-border terrorism. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Karimov identified drug trafficking, international terrorism, religious extremism and cross border terrorism as common threats faced by their nations. Opium production in Afghanistan accounts for 80 per cent of global output. And drug trafficking in Afghanistan has been the fountainhead of terrorist financing in the Central and South Asian regions. At the joint press conference on April 26, 2006 in Tashkent, President Karimov supported the Indian policy to eliminate these threats. Tashkent has been supportive of India's stance on various regional and international issues, like for instance the reconstruction programme in Afghanistan and the fight against international terrorism. The Indian experience in fighting terrorism and insurgencies could be of utility to Uzbekistan given the number of hot spots in the Ferghana Valley and other parts of Uzbekistan. In particular, the Indian experience with the use of Central Police Organisations and paramilitary forces is likely to be of considerable value to Tashkent. Military training and education is another important component of bilateral ties between New Delhi and Tashkent. An agreement to this effect was signed during President Karimov's visit to India in April 2005. In the field of defence, India had acquired six Ilyushin-78 in-flight refueling aircraft from Uzbekistan. Indian aircraft are being regularly serviced at the Chkalov aircraft plant in Tashkent. There is great potential for co-operation between New Delhi and Tashkent in the aviation sector.

President Karimov once again reiterated his country's support to India's permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council and to the resolution of the Jammu & Kashmir issue through bilateral talks between New Delhi and Islamabad. Tashkent completely ruled out a role for any third party either as mediator or facilitator for resolving the Jammu & Kashmir issue.

There have been a few trend-setting developments in the Central Asian geo-political landscape such as 9/11, the "Tulip Revolution" of March 2004 in Kyrgyzstan and the May 2005 developments in Andijon, Uzbekistan. While 9/11 provided an opportunity to the United States to get a foothold in the Central Asian region, the other two events have put US policy towards Central Asia in jeopardy. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Astana in July last year gave a clear message to the United States to wind down its military bases from the territories of its member states. The US had had to consequently depart from the Karshi-Khanabad base in Uzbekistan. It is against this backdrop that India needs to play a proactive role in the prevailing geo-political situation in Central Asia. The region has been termed as 'extended neighbourhood' in the Indian strategic calculus. New Delhi has tremendous goodwill compared to any other major player in the region and is considered a benign neighbour. The Indian PM's visit to Tashkent has been a step forward in the right direction.

Uzbek entrepreneurs can make use of the considerable experience of Indian industry in areas such as textiles (both cotton and silk), pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, information technology and processing of agricultural products, to name only a few. Indian businessmen have already shown interest to invest in some of these areas. Bilateral trade in the past remained in the range of $30 to $40 million per annum. It reached $108.6 million in 2003, very largely in favour of Uzbekistan and $ 120.9 million in 2004. But it dropped to $ 61.1 million in 2005. The Inter-governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation between India and Uzbekistan met in March 2006 in New Delhi to discuss ways and means to exploit the economic potential that exists between New Delhi and Tashkent.

Another agreement signed on April 26, 2006 is for establishing the Uzbekistan-India Entrepreneurship Development Centre in Tashkent. This is a step forward in increasing economic ties between the two countries. The inauguration of the Jawaharlal Nehru Information Technology Centre in Tashkent by the Indian PM on April 26, 2006 was an important milestone as far as projecting Indian excellence in IT is concerned. Information Technology, hydrocarbons, North-South transport corridor, deepening of bilateral cooperation in the areas of small and medium scale business and tourism appear to be candidate areas in Indo-Uzbek economic cooperation with high potential for success. For Uzbekistan, India could emerge as a major market for its energy resources. Indications are that Uzbek enterprises and entrepreneurs would welcome Indian participation via joint ventures in areas like manufacture of electronic equipment, precision instruments, optical instruments, textiles, ready-made garments and leather goods. Uzbekistan is in a good position to supply items like phosphorous fertilizers, chemicals, aircraft and metals to India.

Cultural ties constitute an important pillar of our bilateral relationship. There is a very active Indian cultural centre in Tashkent, which, besides working closely with many Uzbek organizations, also conducts regular classes in Indian classical dance "Kathak", Tabla, Yoga, Hindi language and Indian studies. It is rather difficult to separate the past from the present while discussing Indo-Uzbek cultural ties. The past feeds and enriches the present and provides the ambience for the warm relations that exist between the two countries.

In the final analysis, one can say that religious extremism and international terrorism would remain challenges to Central Asian security and stability. Indo-Uzbek cooperation would be an important part of the international coalition against such forces in Afghanistan. India has been a supporter of evolutionary democracy. In pursuing policies for successful economic development with equity, every nation would have to effectively base them on its own history, culture and traditional value systems. Imitative policies, which reflect the conditions in other countries, are not likely to be effective. In order to expand and strengthen of economic partnership and cooperation between New Delhi and Tashkent, firstly, as re-opening of a branch of the State Bank of India or the Punjab National Bank in Tashkent for efficient and cost-effective commercial transactions is a necessary step.

Secondly, there is a firm need to establish an office of the CII/FICCI/ASSOCHAM for liaison and facilitation functions. In the soft power arena, India could consider extending professional assistance to restore Uzbek films, which are now stored in Moscow.

“Diplomatist”, October 2006